In 2016, I ran for congress in Michigan's2nd congressional district- a safe red district. However, the results showed an interesting datapoint.

My name was right below Hillary's on the Democratic side of the ballot. In numerous locations throughout the district, Hillary got more votes than I did. What that told me is many people who normally vote Republican voted for HRC, then jumped back to the GOP side of the ballot and voted Republican down the ballot.

That process likely accelerated in 2020. A good portion of 2016 voters thought " well give Trump a chance, we don't like Hillary" but then had buyers remorse after four years of chaos. It will only accelerate further this year.

https://ballotpedia.org/Dennis_Murphy_(Michigan_congressional_candidate)