As someone said- we are out a ways. Yes, there is a chance of Democrats being in a self-contained "poll bubble." But there are two types of polls- registered voters and LIKELY voters. Biden appears to lead among likely voters.

That said, Michigan Democrats developed a really strong ground game in 2018 which was in place in 2020 and 2022. This ground game was developed to overcome the poor coordination we experienced with the Clinton campaign in 2016, something I saw first hand as a congressional candidate in 2016. The Clinton campaign did little to no coordination with state and district level races. State party chair Lavora Barnes along with Debbie Stabenow really amped up the process here in 2018.